The growing risk of a recession in the U.S. economy is becoming harder to ignore with the probability rising to 55% over the next 12 months primarily due to the cumulative impact of recent economic shocks, writes RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas in the May issue of The Real Economy.
While there may still be time to mitigate the damage from the evolving tariff regime, it is too late to prevent the broader economy from slowing significantly. In addition, Brusuelas points to the declining value of the dollar and the fall in safe haven assets like U.S. Treasury notes. It's a result, he writes, of declining confidence in the American economy.
Any further haphazard implementation of the current trade regime that results in a further tightening of financial conditions will cause a much deeper downturn in the U.S. economy.
Also in this issue, RSM's Brian Winne and Adam Lohr analyze the initial public offering market in the biopharma industry, and why the expected revival has not taken place this year.
Finally, Brusuelas and RSM’s Tuan Nguyen decode the global economy in transition with the Market Minutes series. From declining real income expectations to rising yields to the declining dollar, Brusuelas and Nguyen capture the breadth of these economic changes, an industry at a time.
We look at these topics and more in this issue of The Real Economy.
RSM US MMBI
Numerous regulations are making sustainability a larger compliance issue.
Tax incentives are one part of companies’ broader decarbonization efforts.
Training is the most common action taken toward compliance, but also the top hurdle.
The Real Economy Blog was developed to provide timely economic insights about the middle market economy. It is offered as a complement to RSM’s macroeconomic thought leadership, including The Real Economy monthly publication and the proprietary RSM US Middle Market Business Index (MMBI).
Middle market organizations, which make up the “real economy,” are too big to be small and too small to be big. They have distinct challenges and opportunities around resources, labor, technology, innovation, regulation and more.
